ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 230636 
SPC MCD 230636 
OKZ000-TXZ000-230800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196...

VALID 230636Z - 230800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS AS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN OK AND
NRN TX.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
ACROSS MUCH OF TX EXTENDING NWD INTO SW OK WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF WW 196. THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NEAR THE RED RIVER IS LOCATED ALONG THE
NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ON THE ERN EDGE OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE MCS FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND THE STORMS MAY TURN A BIT MORE ESEWD FAVORING
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT
FORT WORTH SHOWS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 4 KM AGL
WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
ESTIMATED NEAR 50 KT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33409796 33029708 33219662 33829643 34529720 34859878
            34739925 34509939 33879946 33559875 33409796 

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