ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 230206 
SPC MCD 230206 
NDZ000-SDZ000-230400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND/NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192...

VALID 230206Z - 230400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF WW 192...WITH LOCAL WFO EXTENSION IN AREA
INTO EASTERN ND POSSIBLE.  MEANWHILE...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITH SOME INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AS THIS FRONT SPREADS INTO CENTRAL ND AND
NORTH-CENTRAL SD.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SINCE
THE ISSUANCE OF WW 192 HAVE INDICATED THE GREATEST TSTM COVERAGE IN
VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM NEAR PHILIP SD THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL SD TO THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF ND.  THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN RATHER MESSY STORM MODES AS CLUSTERS HAVE
EVOLVED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF WW 192 IN ND. 
HOWEVER...STORM ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN SUPERCELLULAR AT TIMES...GIVEN
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT.  IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7.5 C/KM PER 00Z BIS SOUNDING/ AND THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST HAIL OF AT LEAST 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL REMAIN A THREAT.  

MEANWHILE...STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO BE SUSTAINED ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD FROM WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL ND AND TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL SD.  HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS STORMS FROM OLIVER TO MCHENRY COUNTIES ND MAY BE
ATTAINING SOME ORGANIZATION AS THEY ENCOUNTER STRONGER INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50 KT ACROSS CENTRAL ND.  HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS
WELL.  SIMILARLY...NEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN NORTH-CENTRAL SD /DEWEY
TO EASTERN CORSON AND WESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTIES/ AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THIS REGION.

..PETERS.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   44680106 45580187 46730163 47820196 48960191 49049792
            48849745 47919742 46719735 45849775 44649776 44289880
            43949913 44089963 44839972 44680106 

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