ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 230033 
SPC MCD 230033 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-230200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0683
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB TO EASTERN SD AND SOUTHWEST MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 230033Z - 230200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE-WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS
EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO EASTERN SD AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST
MN...TO THE EAST OF WW 191 AND THE SD PORTION OF WW 192.  A TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WHILE A TRANSITION
TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA.

DISCUSSION...30-60-METER PER 12-HOUR 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM WY THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO
EASTERN ND/SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z MON.  LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE
WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50-65 KT
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MN. 
THIS LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A POLEWARD MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FEED WITH AN
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/SD TO EASTERN ND THIS
EVENING.  ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE YET THIS
EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS...MODELS SUGGEST AN EVENTUAL UPSCALE
GROWTH FOR A LINEAR MCS WILL OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT LATER
THIS EVENING.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42579968 43829937 45749809 45799701 45579650 44829588
            44119584 42819698 41689800 41139862 41159900 41599944
            42579968 

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