ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 222325 
SPC MCD 222325 
TXZ000-230130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX AREA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 222325Z - 230130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY AFFECT THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA OF
SWRN TX THIS EVENING WITH SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF STORMS WARRANT A WW...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF
SANDERSON NWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WRN TX. THE WARM SECTOR EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-4000 J/KG
MLCAPE. HOWEVER...A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS
IN THIS REGION. A STORM DEVELOPING ALONG DRYLINE JUST EAST OF FORT
STOCKTON APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING. HOWEVER...A LARGE RIGHT-MOVING
SUPERCELL JUST JUST EAST OF MIDLAND MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE SAN
ANGELO CWA. A LEFT SPLIT IN EXTREME NRN MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE
BORDER COUNTY OF VAL VERDE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. HOWEVER...CONCERN IS THAT A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MIGHT LIMIT DURATION AND COVERAGE
OF STORMS IN THIS REGION.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 05/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32140008 31150008 29760085 29860176 29940220 31230184
            31950151 32140008 

NNNN