ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 220229 
SPC MCD 220229 
TXZ000-OKZ000-220330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0674
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX INCLUDING PART OF THE TX
PANHANDLE...AND INTO THE OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186...

VALID 220229Z - 220330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE REST OF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH STRONGER ISOLATED STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LOCAL WFO WATCH EXTENSION IN TIME
MAY BE NEEDED IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEIR INTENSITY.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOW STORM COVERAGE
WITHIN WW 186 HAS DECREASED FAIRLY MARKEDLY...WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS LOCATED ALONG THE BORDER OF DALLAM AND HARTLEY COUNTIES TX
AND IN DEAF SMITH COUNTY TX.  SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION IS
INCREASING...GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE A MODIFIED
00Z AMA SOUNDING WITH 02Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMS THE INCREASE
OF INHIBITION.  THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SURFACE-BASED STORMS AND THE OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH FURTHER BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING.  LOCAL WFO
WATCH EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE NEEDED IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE TX
PANHANDLE.  OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT FOR THE REST OF
THE COUNTIES WITHIN WW 186 SHOULD EXPIRE AT 03Z.

..PETERS.. 05/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   32980238 33690291 34890299 36350268 36680216 36740141
            36410097 34920111 34630148 33640160 32960163 32980238 

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