ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 211925 
SPC MCD 211925 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST KS TO FAR EAST-CENTRAL NM/TX S PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 211925Z - 212100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO EAST-CENTRAL NM
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALL STORMS SHOULD POSE A PRIMARY RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL...WITH A MORE INTENSE SUPERCELL OR TWO PROBABLE OVER
SOUTHWEST KS WHERE THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY GREATER.

DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IS INCREASING ALONG/BEHIND THE
DRYLINE WHICH WAS DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHWEST KS/EAST-CENTRAL CO
BORDER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO FAR EASTERN NM. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING COMMON AT 19Z. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE /FURTHER INTENSIFYING INTO EARLY EVENING/ SHOULD
RESULT IN INITIAL STORMS FORMING BETWEEN 20-21Z. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED AND STRENGTHEN GREATLY TOWARDS 00Z
ACROSS THE KS/OK PANHANDLE PORTION OF THIS REGION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING A SUPERCELL OR TWO THAT MAY PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO. NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO NEAR THE DRYLINE.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/21/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38650183 39080188 39330196 39790202 39800171 39560135
            38980065 37990049 36190106 34220207 33540269 33680327
            33850345 35660295 38000198 38650183 

NNNN