ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192047 
SPC MCD 192047 
TXZ000-192215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 192047Z - 192215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO COMPOSITE COLD
FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BEING SHUNTED OFFSHORE BY ABOUT 23Z. LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD. SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE RISK
SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED JUST AHEAD
OF THE COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT STRETCHED FROM
35 WNW MFE TO 60 S CRP AS OF 2030Z. AIR MASS S OF THIS COMPOSITE
BOUNDARY IS LIKELY STRONGLY UNSTABLE PER MODIFIED 17Z CRP RAOB WITH
LOWER 90S TEMPERATURES AND 73-75 DEG F DEW POINTS AT THE SURFACE. A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A  SUPERCELL
OR TWO WITH A MAIN THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
BUOYANCY. THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS
THIS RISK SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON   26689847 26969754 26719720 26129715 25849714 25819814
            26079854 26689847 

NNNN