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Mesoscale Discussion 654 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192047Z - 192215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO COMPOSITE COLD
FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BEING SHUNTED OFFSHORE BY ABOUT 23Z. LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD. SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE RISK
SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED JUST AHEAD
OF THE COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT STRETCHED FROM
35 WNW MFE TO 60 S CRP AS OF 2030Z. AIR MASS S OF THIS COMPOSITE
BOUNDARY IS LIKELY STRONGLY UNSTABLE PER MODIFIED 17Z CRP RAOB WITH
LOWER 90S TEMPERATURES AND 73-75 DEG F DEW POINTS AT THE SURFACE. A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A SUPERCELL
OR TWO WITH A MAIN THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
BUOYANCY. THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS
THIS RISK SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/19/2016
ATTN...WFO...BRO...
LAT...LON 26689847 26969754 26719720 26129715 25849714 25819814
26079854 26689847
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