ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 191204 
SPC MCD 191204 
TXZ000-191400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 191204Z - 191400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY DEVELOP
THIS MORNING IN A W-E ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM DIMMIT COUNTY EWD TO
THE COAST. A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED DEPENDING ON STORM TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS CRP RADAR SHOW A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NWD ACROSS SRN TX WITH 70S F DEWPOINTS TO THE S. STRONG
VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS ARE ALSO PRESENT. LIFT FROM WARM
ADVECTION ALONE HAD PREVIOUSLY FAILED TO SUSTAIN EARLIER CELLS
ACROSS WEBB AND LASALLE COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL CORES WERE PRESENT.

THE STORM OVER DIMMIT COUNTY APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY LIFT ALONG A SWD
SURGE OF COOLER AIR...AND POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW WITH THE
LARGER AREA OF STORMS. AS THIS STORM CONTINUES EWD...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER STRONGER INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS
COULD SUSTAIN IT WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO EITHER A LARGE
FORWARD-TILTING CELL OR SMALL BOW CONTAINING HAIL AND PERHAPS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28889979 29179877 29249789 29149674 28709648 28399661
            27749718 27889791 28049907 28149964 28189985 28470005
            28889979 

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