ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180455 
SPC MCD 180455 
TXZ000-180600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 180455Z - 180600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. WW 180 WILL EXPIRE AT 06Z...AND RADAR
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE NEW WW.

DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL CLUSTER OVER THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS...ALTHOUGH THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
THESE THREATS APPEARS TO HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST HR.
THIS CLUSTER IS PROGRESSING IN A GENERAL ESEWD DIRECTION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FEED OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE ENE. THE
SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THIS CLUSTER /ESTIMATED AROUND 20 KT/ SUGGESTS
THE THREAT WILL SLOWLY SPREAD TOWARDS THE ERN EDGE OF WW 180 BY 06Z.

OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE ALSO
EXHIBITING OCCASIONAL POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...AND THE ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSHEAR FROM THIS
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL COOLING...SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE RELATIVELY CONFINED AND
MARGINAL SVR THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW ISSUANCE AFTER WW 180 EXPIRES AT 06Z.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 05/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28649762 28200028 28870072 29180100 29410088 29760056
            29729984 29969896 30099823 30089774 30039733 29519723
            28649762 

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