ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180152 
SPC MCD 180152 
TXZ000-180245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0852 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181...

VALID 180152Z - 180245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SUPERCELL COMPLEX MOVING SWD JUST E OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...AND A
NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELL OVER JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...A LARGE SUPERCELL COMPLEX WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SWD ACROSS WEBB COUNTY
INTO ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES...AND REMAINS POSITIONED WITHIN AN
AXIS OF 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. A NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELL OVER
JIM HOGG/BROOKS COUNTY HAS ALSO SHOWN A PERSISTENT HAIL CORE AND
PRODUCED MULTIPLE LEFT SPLITS MERGING INTO THE LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX TO THE N.

00Z RAOBS FROM BRO AND CRP INDICATE A CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING THIS
SHOULD BE REINFORCED IN VICINITY OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED MORE RECENTLY IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT
FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

..ROGERS.. 05/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   26899794 26099819 26269883 26779937 27449961 27749951
            27779871 27669814 26899794 

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