ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170023 
SPC MCD 170023 
OKZ000-TXZ000-170130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176...177...

VALID 170023Z - 170130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
176...177...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A STORM CLUSTER OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ESEWD AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NERN TX PANHANDLE AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO WRN OK.  A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 0130-0200Z FOR PORTIONS OF WRN OK.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF STORMS WITH A FEW
SUPERCELLS ON THE SWRN PORTION OF THE CLUSTER OVER THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEG F.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS
INCREASED THE PAST 1-2 HOURS PER KAMA VAD DATA...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
A LESS-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODE /QUASI-DISCRETE TO LINEAR CLUSTER/
APPEARS UNDERWAY.  THE 00Z AMA RAOB SHOWED VERY STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES /8.5 DEG C PER KM/ WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO AROUND
50 KT AT H5.  AS SUCH...THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

EXPECTING AN UPSCALE GROWTH EVOLUTION TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS STORMS MOVE DOWNSTREAM.  FOR ANY STORMS MAINTAINING A
CELLULAR STRUCTURE...LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT IN
ADDITION TO PERHAPS A TORNADO.  IF STORMS GROW INTO A WELL-CONNECTED
BAND OF CELLULAR STORMS...THE PREDOMINANT THREAT THAT MAY DEVELOP
WITH TIME COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL---BEGINNING
IN THE ERN PANHANDLE AND MOVING INTO WRN OK.  SEVERE GUSTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 65 KT MAY OCCURRED IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS.

..SMITH.. 05/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   35590267 35930268 36440153 36139784 34439859 35590267 

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