ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 140121 
SPC MCD 140121 
TXZ000-140245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NW TX INTO WESTERN PART OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175...

VALID 140121Z - 140245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT MAY SPREAD SOUTH OF WW 175 ACROSS
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NORTHWEST TX THIS EVENING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL NEED FOR A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW
STORM MERGERS AND AN AMALGAMATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS WESTERN HARDEMAN/NORTHWEST FOARD TO MOTLEY COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST TX...WITH THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT 30 KT.  A RESIDUAL RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF THESE STORMS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND
TX BIG COUNTRY.  ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY MODEST TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...A LARGE AMOUNT OF DCAPE /CLOSE TO 1500
J/KG PER MAF 00Z SOUNDING/ WITH AN INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILE ARE
SUPPORTIVE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  THIS SUGGESTS A
SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT COULD PROCEED TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...EXITING
WW 175 BY 03Z...AND SUPPORT NEW WW ISSUANCE PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION.

EXCEPT FOR THE 21Z HRRR...THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THIS MODEL
SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO WITH A BOWING LINE OF STORMS TRACKING ACROSS
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND TX BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 05/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33360118 33680105 33880010 34039947 33959903 33239865
            32219845 31879910 31770035 31890047 32180091 32830123
            33360118 

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