ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 132317 SPC MCD 132317 OKZ000-TXZ000-140115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TO WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175... VALID 132317Z - 140115Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INCLUDING THE TX PANHANDLE. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH ACTIVITY IN NORTH AND NORTHWEST OK EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...ONGOING STORMS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS THEY SPREAD TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. COUNTIES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE CAN CONTINUE TO BE REMOVED FROM WW 175...AS THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY. DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD...AND AT 23Z EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST OK TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST OK IS RELATIVELY NARROW...WITH ONGOING STORMS MOVING THROUGH THAT CORRIDOR NOW. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 40-50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED...ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT MAY MOVE INTO A TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF WW 175 FROM KINGFISHER TO PAYNE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THOUGH...THESE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO BETWEEN 01-02Z...WHERE INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER AND SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST OK ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONGER THAN THE STORMS IN NORTH/NORTHWEST OK...SINCE THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS LOCATED WITHIN AND CLOSER TO A GREATER SUPPLY OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO AROUND 40 KT SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE ESRL-HRRR AND OPERATIONAL HRRR EACH SUGGEST THIS GENERAL SCENARIO FOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF WW 175 TO HAVE A PROLONGED SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. ..PETERS.. 05/13/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33460300 35170298 35740145 36300014 36659868 36979784 36969677 36279693 35819723 35339805 34489808 33969864 33399898 33380297 33460300 NNNN