ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 132030 
SPC MCD 132030 
TXZ000-NMZ000-132200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SE NM INTO SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 132030Z - 132200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS SE NM INTO SW TX. A
WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN ISOLATED/BRIEF NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN IN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME. WHILE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS
PRESENT...THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE FRINGES OF STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FURTHER NORTH WITH AROUND 25 KT BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR NOTED IN
20Z MESOANALYSIS. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...LACK
OF STRONGER SHEAR...LIMITED UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PROXIMITY
TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY AND ANY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH ANY
GIVEN CELL. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 05/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   34170503 34620425 34810357 34540321 33890311 31930310
            30970321 30710419 31980483 33400548 34170503 

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