ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121933 
SPC MCD 121933 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-122100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE AR...NE LA...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 121933Z - 122100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PATS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN AR INTO W-CNTRL MS. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND STRONG HEATING INTO THE 80S HAS RESULTED IN WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE...AROUND 25
KT...BUT FORECAST TO IMPROVE SOME AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. MODERATE DCAPE AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY FAVOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
IN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MESSY WITH PULSE-LIKE CLUSTERS MOST LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SHOULD ANY APPRECIABLE COLD POOL DEVELOP...FURTHER
ORGANIZATION INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS AND ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. MODEST
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL GENERALLY LIMIT LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL...BUT SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS. A WATCH IS NOT IMMEDIATELY EXPECTED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/12/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32929326 33539288 33849200 34298972 34348866 33518833
            32448852 31678949 31419062 31469202 31609271 31759293
            32139327 32659336 32929326 

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