ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120835 
SPC MCD 120835 
TXZ000-121000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS BIG COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173...

VALID 120835Z - 121000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONGER STORMS MAY MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A MODEST /30-40 KT AT 850 MB/ SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
EXTENDING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TOWARD THE SOUTH PLAINS IS
SUPPORTING RENEWED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY.  THIS IS GENERALLY OCCURRING
ABOVE A RESIDUAL CONGLOMERATE SURFACE COLD POOL GENERATED BY EARLIER
CONVECTION...BUT NEWER STORMS NORTHWEST/WEST NORTHWEST OF ABILENE
ARE OCCURRING ALONG/ABOVE A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  

25 KT WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUING
GENERAL EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS. 
DESPITE THE ELEVATED NATURE OF EVEN THIS ACTIVITY...THE INFLOW OF
MOIST AIR CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY LARGE CAPE MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STORMS OCCASIONALLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...AND
PERHAPS LOCALIZED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.  THIS THREAT
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 10-11Z...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS
AND/OR IS OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT.

..KERR.. 05/12/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32230031 32670129 33240039 32449787 31469784 31759933
            32230031 

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