ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120111 
SPC MCD 120111 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-120345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MO...NRN/WRN AR...CNTRL/ERN/SRN
OK...N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 120111Z - 120345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AROUND 02-04Z. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD GENERALLY EWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BECOME REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC OBS SUGGEST A FRONT LIES INVOF THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND EXTENDS NEWD INTO
CNTRL MO. OUN AND FWD 00Z RAOBS SAMPLE A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
E OF THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
BENEATH AN EML. BUOYANCY IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER FARTHER NE INTO MO. 

WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY DEEP ASCENT APPROACHING THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC BOUNDARY...AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AROUND 02Z-04Z WHEN STRONGER ASCENT OVERTAKES THE
BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY
INDICATE BOUNDARY-LAYER CU DEEPENING E OF THE FRONT FROM ERN OK INTO
NWRN AR...AND DEEPER CONVECTION COULD ARISE IN THIS CORRIDOR.
ALSO...EVOLVING CONVECTION IN N TX ADDRESSED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
610 COULD SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME...AS COLD POOLS EXPAND FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION.

MODESTLY LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER WILL
SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WHERE
LOCALIZED COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION ENSUES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF MORE ROBUST INCREASE IN SVR-TSTM
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 05/12/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33599836 34019864 34629831 35299762 36499583 37429349
            37699212 37479149 36599151 35679337 33809605 33469712
            33599836 

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