ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101738 
SPC MCD 101738 
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-101845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 101738Z - 101845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OH VALLEY.  GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT...SHROUDED IN CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS...IS MIGRATING ACROSS ECNTRL IL.  THIS FEATURE IS LONG-LIVED
AND IS WELL HANDLED MY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY
ALIGNED ALONG THE OH RIVER...PARALLEL TO MEAN DEEP-LAYER FLOW.  OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS...BOUNDARY-LAYER HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF
THIS CONVECTION AND THERE APPEARS TO BE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CLOUD DEBRIS.  OVERALL CONVECTIVE TRENDS
SUGGEST AN UPWARD EVOLVING COMPLEX OF TSTMS SHOULD BE NOTED ACROSS
THE SRN OH VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP-LAYER FLOW
FAVORS ORGANIZED LINE STRUCTURES AND SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

..DARROW/HART.. 05/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37398795 38028620 38888560 39078397 37808344 36828722
            37398795 

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