ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100337 
SPC MCD 100337 
MOZ000-ARZ000-100500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MO/FAR NORTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 100337Z - 100500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST MO AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST AR THROUGH LATE EVENING.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
ISOLATED/MARGINAL.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING VORT
MAX...FOCUSED JUST BEHIND AN EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO AND POSSIBLY
FAR NORTHWEST AR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED IN THE 00Z OBSERVED SPRINGFIELD MO
SOUNDING WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS COOLED THIS EVENING /GENERALLY LOWER 60S F
TEMPERATURES/ AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   37649454 38389419 37779293 36419326 35969443 37649454 

NNNN