ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091839 
SPC MCD 091839 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-091945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH CENTRAL
TX...WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 091839Z - 091945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 21Z. 
LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY ALONG WITH A TORNADO THREAT.

DISCUSSION...STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS TRANSLATING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  WINDS HAVE RECENTLY GUSTED TO 70KT AT
GDP SUPPORTING LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN DRY LINE SURGING EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.  STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING HAS
STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH VALUES NEAR
DRY ADIABATIC.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE BREACHED AND
TCU ARE NOW FORMING FROM CANADIAN COUNTY OK...SWD TO JACK COUNTY TX.

LATEST THINKING IS SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AND
SPREAD QUICKLY ENEWD.  EARLIER MCS HAS LEFT A RAIN-COOLED
DEMARCATION ACROSS SERN OK AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ENHANCED TORNADO RISK AS SUPERCELLS MATURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..DARROW/HART.. 05/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35149728 35629443 34809355 33319419 33289731 35149728 

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