ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090417 
SPC MCD 090417 
NEZ000-KSZ000-090545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151...152...

VALID 090417Z - 090545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
151...152...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME
TORNADO RISK...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB/FAR NORTHEAST KS. 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCHES 151/152 CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND 1AM
CDT RESPECTIVELY...AND TEMPORALLY EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 150 IS
CURRENTLY VALID UNTIL 05Z/MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL TEMPORAL EXTENSIONS
OR PERHAPS A REPLACEMENT WATCH COULD BE NEEDED BEFORE 05Z/MIDNIGHT
CDT.

DISCUSSION...A NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND
SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED FRONTAL CORRIDOR SHOULD MAINTAIN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST
NEB/FAR NORTHEAST KS THROUGH LATE EVENING AND EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT. SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MOST COMMON THREAT PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS...WHERE A NEAR-SURFACE-BASED
SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN RELATIVELY CLOSE
PROXIMITY /JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST/ TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SRH IS MAXIMIZED /LIKELY 300+ M2 PER S2 EFFECTIVE SRH AS
SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS/. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME
SEVERE HAIL WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FARTHER NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEAST NEB/FAR NORTHEAST KS WHERE A MORE QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY PERSIST.

..GUYER.. 05/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38990014 39699846 40189771 40999738 41139635 40489600
            39359693 38819748 38329995 38990014 

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