ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 081709 
SPC MCD 081709 
TXZ000-081845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW TO N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 081709Z - 081845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN BY 19Z AND QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE AGITATED CU FIELD WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BIG BEND AREA NORTHEAST TO THE PERMIAN BASIN
JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING HAVING ALREADY ERODED CAPPING SHOULD
RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS
TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. STORMS MAY INITIALLY REMAIN DISCRETE
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TOWARD BOWING SEGMENTS OR GROWING UPSCALE INTO
AN E/NEWD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
TRANSITION IN STORM MODE WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL TX
BY 19Z. STORMS MAY NOT INITIATE/MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MCD AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT...WATCH
ISSUANCE MAY BE LATER THAN FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33229892 33169849 32989821 32779808 32199819 31739852
            30399983 29670063 29460097 29470132 29570203 29680244
            30010272 30500299 31190283 32240159 32760089 33100035
            33189979 33229892 

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