ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 072314 
SPC MCD 072314 
OHZ000-080045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0549
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 072314Z - 080045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN THIS
AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK INSTABILITY /AROUND 500-700 J/KG MUCAPE/
AND DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZATION WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY /WIND AND OR
HAIL/ IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. 
FURTHERMORE...THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...LEAVING ONLY A BRIEF
WINDOW /THROUGH ABOUT 01Z/ FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39438338 39858342 40668328 41128303 41318259 41308199
            41068138 40728114 40308107 39868119 39488158 39298207
            39318277 39438338 

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