ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 071845 
SPC MCD 071845 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-072115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IL...SWRN IND...NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 071845Z - 072115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 21Z.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF INDIANA/ILLINOIS. THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
WARM/DESTABILIZE...AND CONTINUED HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF
LOWER/MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF
MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. 

A FEW BRIEF/STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WEAKENING INHIBITION AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
SOUTHEAST-MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA PRIOR TO 21Z.

..BUNTING/HART.. 05/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39908981 39568808 38798510 37988497 37418540 37608693
            37998812 38318891 38648945 38948989 39219023 39779034
            39908981 

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