ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032158 
SPC MCD 032158 
NCZ000-VAZ000-032300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA / NERN AND ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 032158Z - 032300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS /50-65 MPH/ WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1006-MB
LOW NEAR RIC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD OVER THE WRN PART OF
THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.  A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CAPE FEAR NWD
INTO SERN VA WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AMIDST MID 70S TEMPS. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS PORTION OF NC/VA HAS BEEN
LARGELY VOID OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BUBBLING CU
FIELD.  AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PIVOT TOWARDS THE REGION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW THIS REGION OVER ERN NC/SERN VA HAS
BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /500-1000 J PER KG MLCAPE/. 
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING
THE POSSIBILITY FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.  AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS STORM ACTIVITY PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE REGION.

..SMITH/HART.. 05/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34987832 36677808 37047718 37397629 37327583 35587538
            35047574 34337707 34987832 

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