ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 022234 
SPC MCD 022234 
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-022330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN VA NWD INTO THE D.C. AREA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138...139...

VALID 022234Z - 022330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
138...139...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /50-65 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS S-CNTRL VA NEWD TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A THETA-E
AXIS EXTENDING FROM NERN NC NWD TO THE POTOMAC RIVER VALLEY.  RADAR
IMAGERY AROUND 2230Z SHOWS MULTIPLE STRONG TO SEVERE CLUSTERS OF
STORMS FROM NEAR THE GREATER D.C. AREA SWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE VA
NEAR THE I-81 AND I-95 CORRIDORS AND A CLUSTER PROPAGATING NWD ON
OUTFLOW INTO S-CNTRL VA.  STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT IN AREA
VWP DATA SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR THE LARGEST HAIL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF VA /50-KT VS. 35-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/
WHERE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST.  NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT
ALGORITHM AND MRMS MESH DATA SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL SIZE
WITH THE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT NEAR D.C. MAY BE NEAR 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER.  FARTHER S...LESS-ORGANIZED STORMS /MULTICELLS/ WILL POSE
A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUST THREAT AS THE STORM CLUSTER MOVE
GENERALLY IN A ENEWD DIRECTION DURING THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING
HOURS.

..SMITH.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   36767902 37737917 39027699 37727628 36737675 36767902 

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