ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021843 
SPC MCD 021843 
VAZ000-NCZ000-021945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC...S-CNTRL/SE VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 021843Z - 021945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED SVR HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS
STORM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT OBSERVATIONS REVEAL TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S/ ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J PER KG.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INSTABILITY CLOSE TO
CURRENTLY OBSERVED VALUES DESPITE PERSISTENT HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
CONTINUED MIXING AND RESULTING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN VA WHERE THE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS
SPREADS WILL BE GREATER. SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS BUT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE BETTER FLOW ALOFT...LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION AND
SUSTAINED UPDRAFT STRENGTH. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..MOSIER/DIAL.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   36877845 37837776 37647682 36887652 35117745 34607865
            34907970 35617978 36437878 36877845 

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