ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021823 
SPC MCD 021823 
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-021930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL GA...CNTRL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 021823Z - 021930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AS INSOLATION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING THESE
SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J PER KG AND NO
CINH. MAIN FACTOR EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE COVERAGE IS THE
GENERALLY WEAK WIND PROFILES. RECENT REGIONAL VAD AND MESOANALYSIS
DATA PLACE THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND THEREFORE THE STRONGER
BULK SHEAR -- TO THE NORTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...A MULTI-CELL MODE
IS FAVORED ACROSS THE MD AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE DUE TO STORM MERGERS AND/OR WATER
LOADING. THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR WW.

..MOSIER/DIAL.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   33688014 33028145 33058329 33408394 34228289 34808142
            34828060 34747988 34587955 34577946 34297941 33967967
            33688014 

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