ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021734 
SPC MCD 021734 
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-021930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...ERN KY...SERN WV...NWRN NC AND WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 021734Z - 021930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION. MULTICELL AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING 
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN REGION FROM ERN TN THROUGH ERN KY...WRN VA
AND SRN WV. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWED MINIMAL CAPPING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 70S...AND CONTINUED HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE
TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND MODEST
/6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A BELT OF MODEST WSWLY WINDS
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION IS CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT BOTH MULTICELL STORM MODES AS WELL AS A FEW
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE
HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   36098448 37568268 38687993 38687831 37937774 37127797
            36177982 35318342 36098448 

NNNN