ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020743 
SPC MCD 020743 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-020945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...WEST LA...SOUTH AR

CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

VALID 020743Z - 020945Z

SUMMARY...THE REGION IS EFFECTIVELY UPGRADED TO MARGINAL/SLIGHT
RISKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CURRENT OUTLOOK PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING WITHIN THE SWATH OF
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTH AR. PRESENCE OF
ROBUST SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER CONTINUES TO
FOSTER UPDRAFT ROTATION PROMOTING LARGE HAIL GROWTH FROM SPLITTING
CELLS. THE LARGELY DISCRETE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED
WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
REGIME IN LEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET...STORMS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31719613 32589463 33559245 33839148 33609098 33209087
            32709108 30359275 29669327 29249451 30019587 31009636
            31719613 

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