ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020538 
SPC MCD 020538 
TXZ000-020745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 020538Z - 020745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SUPERCELL ALONG THE NUEVO LEON AND TAMAULIPAS BORDER
SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON ITS CURRENT
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING HAIL ABOVE 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER/...SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT MAY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL DUE WEST OF ZAPATA COUNTY IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 KT. EXTRAPOLATION RESULTS IN THE HAIL CORE
REACHING THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN 0630-0700Z. WITH MODEST EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PER CORPUS CHRISTI/BROWNSVILLE VWP
DATA...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MAINTENANCE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
IS IN THE DEGREE OF MLCIN AND ITS SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON THE LONGEVITY
OF THIS SUPERCELL. BUT GIVEN ITS WELL-DEVELOPED NATURE AT BASE RADAR
SCANS /WHICH ARE STILL AROUND 20000 FT AGL AT THIS TIME/...IT SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS SUPERCELL WILL AFFECT AT LEAST A COUPLE COUNTIES
IN DEEP SOUTH TX.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON   27069944 27019898 26819854 26469828 26179840 26279890
            26519927 26819947 27069944 

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