ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011959 
SPC MCD 011959 
WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-012100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SW/W WV...FAR SW VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 011959Z - 012100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION WILL SOME SVR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SVR
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO HEAT UP
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INITIAL CINH NOW COMPLETELY ERODED.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT LOWER HERE THAN AREAS FARTHER
W...CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY /LATEST MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/. EVEN WITH LESS
INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VADS AND ESTIMATED BY
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED/POSSIBLY SCATTERED SEVERE THREAT
MAY MATERIALIZE AS TSTM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
PERSISTENT HEATING AND SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOON TO ADDRESS THIS SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/DIAL.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   37288115 36978373 37678373 38628274 39028227 39168199
            39388102 39148052 38518036 37288115 

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