ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011739 
SPC MCD 011739 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-011945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...SRN OH THROUGH NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 011739Z - 011945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NRN OH SWWD THROUGH SRN IND TO A SFC LOW IN SRN IL. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN IL...AND ERN ARKANSAS.
WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG. BASED ON THE 17Z RAOB FROM WILMINGTON OH...VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS. STORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OH...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
INITIATE FARTHER SW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND STORMS SPLITS WITH LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38978757 39698619 40318413 40558239 39878176 39048267
            38088482 37678682 38088783 38978757 

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