ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 300107 
SPC MCD 300107 
TXZ000-300230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 124...

VALID 300107Z - 300230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 124 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...ROUGHLY CENTERED
ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND DALLAS/FORT WORTH.  A
NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 124
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE BASE OF NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGHING NOW SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND A ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...LIKELY IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX.  SUSTAINED DISCRETE STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING TO THE
WEST/AND NORTHWEST OF THE WACO/TEMPLE AREAS...AND STORMS ARE
INITIATING AS INHIBITION WEAKENS SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.

IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-3000+
J/KG...FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION AND
ORGANIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME...ACROSS AND
NORTH OF THE SAN ANTONIO AREA INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX. 
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED ACROSS THIS
REGION...ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET.  AN UPSCALE
GROWING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. 
IF THIS OCCURS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL INCREASE.  IN
THE MEANTIME...A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE
CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.

..KERR.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29880040 30230016 30569955 31459885 32219785 31949633
            30369651 29189814 29260009 29880040 

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