ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 291840 
SPC MCD 291840 
OKZ000-TXZ000-291945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW/S-CNTRL/CNTRL OK...FAR NW/FAR N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 291840Z - 291945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE PROBABLE FROM
SW OK EWD/NEWD TO CNTRL/S-CNTRL OK AND FAR N-CNTRL TX. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS SEVERE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...RECENT GOES-14 1-MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS SCATTERED CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WITH THIS
FILTERED SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTION TO A JUMP IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 60S AT 15Z TO LOW/MID 70S AT 18Z ALONG THE RED RIVER.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE LOW
ABOUT 50 MI SSE OF CDS WITH A WARM FROM EXTENDING NEWD TOWARDS CHK
AND THEN EWD TO ADR AND SEWD TOWARDS DEQ IN SE OK /DEMARCATED FAIRLY
WELL BY THE 65 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM/. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS A
CONVERGENT WIND FIELD AND A MORE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
JUST S OF AXS NEWD TO BVO.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...AND LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT...WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW THE SURFACE PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE
NRN BOUND TO MOISTURE ADVECTION...EFFECTIVELY BECOMING THE WARM
FRONT AS SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF
LOGAN COUNTY.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER SW OK WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS
CONTINUES EWD. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER
FROM SW OK IS 2000 J PER KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT.
SOME BACKING IS NOTED AROUND 3 KM ON THE FDR AND TLX VAD PROFILES
BUT BACKED SURFACE WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1 KM SRH OVER 100
M2/S2. THIS THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SVR HAZARDS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO
COVER THIS THREAT.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34429944 35079844 35549780 35489690 35079589 34739560
            34319552 33919564 33589595 33459648 33569727 33929830
            33979919 34429944 

NNNN