ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 291752 
SPC MCD 291752 
TXZ000-291945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 291752Z - 291945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS ONE OR MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BROKEN BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TX...GENERALLY IN VICINITY AND WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR.  ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AS
FAR NORTH AS THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.  GOES-14 1-MINUTE
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED CU FORMING AS N-S ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...AS SURFACE HEATING BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES IS RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J
PER KG/.

MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED ONE STORM HAD
DEVELOPED IN HAYS COUNTY TX...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BECOMING
DEEPER FARTHER WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST FROM KIMBLE TO ERATH COUNTIES
TX.  THIS LATTER CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL AND SWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS.  AS THE ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS LIKELY GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC FIELDS.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   32929662 31179705 30089769 30059880 30419985 31289930
            32339866 33089820 33139789 32929662 

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