ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 291737 
SPC MCD 291737 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-291900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS...FAR NE LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 291737Z - 291900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AS IT CONTINUES EWD/NEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL MS AND FAR NE LA. WW
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASING
STORM STRENGTH.

DISCUSSION...AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF A LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM
JUST W OF NQA SWWD TO MLU -- MOVING ROUGHLY NNEWD AT 35 KT -- IS
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AS A RESULT OF MODEST DIURNAL HEATING.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE FROM 1000-2000 J PER KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME
DISSOCIATION EXISTS BETWEEN THE BETTER SHEAR /NEAR AND N OF NQA/ AND
THE BEST INSTABILITY /ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN MS/. THIS DISSOCIATION
COUPLED WITH A PRIMARILY LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND/OR ORGANIZATION AS THE LINE CONTINUES EWD/NEWD. EVEN
SO...EPISODIC UPDRAFT STRENGTHENING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AND TRENDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33729071 34459023 34908969 34898885 34568851 33878856
            32698890 31918960 31779017 32239175 33729071 

NNNN