ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 282326 SPC MCD 282326 OKZ000-TXZ000-290100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 120... VALID 282326Z - 290100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 120 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 01-03Z...BUT IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT ANOTHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...STORMS WHICH INITIATED EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE NEAR LUBBOCK ARE NOW BEING MAINTAINED IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION AS THEY SPREAD TOWARD THE CHILDRESS AREA. WHILE THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY RETREAT WESTWARD TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR INCREASING STORM DEVELOP NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST OF AMARILLO. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MID EVENING...AND PERHAPS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM RESIDUAL POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR/SOUTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO. 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROGRESSION OF SOME STORMS NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THERE MAY BE A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY INITIALLY...BUT THE TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO ADVECT INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LEADING TO WEAKENING STORM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...RENEWED SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 40+ KT...TORNADIC POTENTIAL COULD STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...AS NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS DECREASE...PARTICULARLY ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN PLAINVIEW AND CHILDRESS. ..KERR.. 04/28/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35470295 36270292 36810226 36970133 36940003 36269924 35179925 34119958 33210015 33090158 34290274 35470295 NNNN