ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 282017 SPC MCD 282017 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-282215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 282017Z - 282215Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TX NWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO THE OK PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996 MB LOW IN NW NM WITH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE LOW FROM NE NM SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS WEST TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S F. IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TX WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. DUE TO DESTABILIZATION...THE CAPPING INVERSION IS NOW GONE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AGITATED FIELD OF CUMULUS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR LUBBOCK. CELL INITIATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT HOUR ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NNEWD INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WRN TX PANHANDLE BY 22Z. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT LUBBOCK SHOWS A 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT. THIS WIND PROFILE COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL. AS THE STORMS GROW UPSCALE AND THE DOWNDRAFTS MATURE...WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES IN THE 23Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME. ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/28/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32550058 32520134 32910236 34230278 34800332 35300350 36490312 36960250 36880177 36300101 35120042 33749996 33149993 32550058 NNNN