ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 280856 
SPC MCD 280856 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-281100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GULF COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 280856Z - 281100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH STORM COVERAGE POTENTIALLY BECOMING
WIDELY SCATTERED FROM SOUTHEAST LA TO THE WEST FL PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA IS SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA INTO SOUTHWEST AL. UPSTREAM AIR MASS
IS CHARACTERIZED BY 70-75 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER SOUTHEAST LA
AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. 00Z LCH/LIX RAOBS SAMPLED STEEP 700-500 MB
LAPSE OF 7-7.5 DEG C/KM. WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES PERSISTING WITHIN
THIS LAYER PER LIX VWP DATA...IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS PERIPHERY OF
THE EML HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VEERING OF THE WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED UPDRAFT ROTATION
WHICH COULD FOSTER A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MID-MORNING.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 04/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30249149 30689085 31118932 31348825 31378749 31198674
            30998642 30698635 30538641 30268734 30048890 29638990
            29719133 29959175 30249149 

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