ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 271858 SPC MCD 271858 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-272100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST AND PART OF NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA AND A SMALL PART OF EASTERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 271858Z - 272100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...ONE OR MORE BROKEN LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE SOME IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHWEST MO...AND SPREADING INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN IA...AND EASTERN NEB. SEVERE-CALIBER HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHEAST MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 994-MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IN EASTERN NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWEST IA INTO NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL...WHILE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEB AND EASTERN NEB. A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL OK. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND EAST-CENTRAL NEB ALONG THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT AND THE INTERSECTION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE...RESPECTIVELY. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ARE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE CORRIDOR EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS STRENGTHENED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...ENHANCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 04/27/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 41629620 41649539 41259329 40859228 40089243 39429382 39209447 39139547 39779559 40289575 40879644 41069658 41439665 41629620 NNNN