ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 270236 
SPC MCD 270236 
ARZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK / WRN AR / NWRN LA / NERN TX INTO CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 270236Z - 270430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN OK/WRN AR REGION
AND POINTS SWD INTO THE ARKLATEX AND E-CNTRL TX.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL
MAY OCCUR WITH MORE INTENSE CELLS ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE.  A FEW
MESOVORTICES MAY YIELD A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO RISK --MOST LIKELY N OF
THE RED RIVER.  SOME OF THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE PDS TORNADO WATCH
MAY BE REPLACED WITH THE UPCOMING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PRIOR TO
TORNADO WATCH 109 EXPIRATION TIME/LINE PASSAGE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 0230Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE QLCS FROM
N-CNTRL OK SWD TO THE DFW METROPLEX AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO A LOOSE
BAND OF CELLS LOCATED BEHIND THE GUST FRONT OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU.  VERY STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OUN AND
FWD RAOBS /IN EXCESS OF 9 DEG C PER KM/ COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRONGLY
SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE SQUALL LINE INTO ERN OK/WRN AR SWD
INTO THE ARKLATEX AND E-CNTRL AND CNTRL TX.  ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD OF
WIND GUSTS 50-75 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO
ERN OK AND AREAS E OF THE DFW METROPLEX IN A FEW HOURS.  A THREAT
FOR A FEW MESOVORTICES APPEARS HIGHEST FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER NWD
INTO ERN OK WHERE THE LINE IS ORIENTED MORE FAVORABLY WITH THE MEAN
FLOW.  THE SWD TRAILING STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A LOOSE
AMALGAMATION OF CELLS GENERALLY NEAR AND BEHIND THE GUST FRONT.  IN
ADDITION TO AN ISOLD-WIND RISK...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CORES.

..SMITH/GOSS.. 04/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...
SJT...

LAT...LON   33729645 36829530 36639404 36039282 32289355 30919541
            30549752 30699978 32609673 33729645 

NNNN