ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 262314 
SPC MCD 262314 
MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB / SWRN IA / NERN KS / NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 262314Z - 270015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LARGE-HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO THE SW OVER NERN KS CASTS
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER NERN KS AND SERN NEB WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BEING LARGE HAIL.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER-DAY MCS
--CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY-- ARCS NWWD INTO E-CNTRL KS. 
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND ATOP THE RESIDUAL COLD
POOL WITH PROCESSED AIR STILL EMANATING FROM CNTRL MO INTO NWRN MO. 
YET...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER KS PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LARGE STORM CLUSTER LIKELY RESIDE IN POCKETS OVER NERN KS
INTO SERN NEB.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS FARTHER E TOWARDS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF NEB/IA/KS/MO LOCATED TO THE
NE OF THE ONGOING TORNADO WATCH.  AS SUCH...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
MUCH AND WIDESPREAD OF A HAIL RISK MAY DEVELOP TO THE NE OF THE
EXISTING WATCH.  WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE SHORT-TERM TO
ASSESS THE NEED FOR A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..SMITH/GOSS.. 04/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39089514 40409616 41199733 41639671 41149536 39419403
            39089514 

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