ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 262255 
SPC MCD 262255 
TXZ000-270000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...TX BIG COUNTRY / WRN N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 109...

VALID 262255Z - 270000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 109 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS /POSSIBLY IN EXCESS
OF 65 KT/ WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN N-CNTRL TX AND PUSH EWD INTO N-CNTRL
TX LATER THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.  THE LINEAR MODE WILL TEND TO LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING AN ISOLD EMBEDDED CIRCULATION/MESOVORTEX AS THE
QLCS MATURES THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS IMPINGING ON THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER NWRN TX EARLY THIS EVENING.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT...AN INTENSIFYING QLCS HAS DEVELOPED
FROM KNOX COUNTY SSWWD INTO STERLING AND MITCHELL COUNTIES.  IT
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE AND
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A DISCRETE
MODE.  AS A RESULT...SEVERE WIND GUSTS /PERHAPS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF
65 KT WITH THE STRONGER MICROBURSTS/ AND LARGE HAIL --OWING TO STEEP
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES-- ARE BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS EVENING.

..SMITH.. 04/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33559993 33979873 33389805 32149857 31709975 31840105
            32340022 33559993 

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