MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 262040Z - 262215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PARTS OF WEST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED
   ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NW TX.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW OVER NW TX WITH
   A DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS WEST TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE DUE TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN ROCKIES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
   COVERAGE AND MOVE NEWD ONTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. THE VWP AT LUBBOCK SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE
   WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY
   DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS APPROACHING 50
   DEGREES F MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32210039 31560087 31500154 31870194 32510165 33300121
               33400061 33210013 32210039