ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 261758 
SPC MCD 261758 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL IND...SRN OH...NW WV...NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 261758Z - 262030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SCNTRL IND EWD
ACROSS SRN OH INTO NW WV. THE THREAT MAY DEVELOP SWD INTO NRN KY. WW
ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL AND SW OH THIS
AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE HRRR GRADUALLY
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
MCD AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS BELOW
25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF SCNTRL IND AND SW OH. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. IN SPITE OF THIS...A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS ANALYZED BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE
STORMS CAN LINE UP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE SWD INTO NRN KY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38068569 38238751 38818786 39518763 39848718 40118522
            40138339 40138198 40148135 39948069 39548048 38878046
            38368071 38128196 38078464 38068569 

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