ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 242145 
SPC MCD 242145 
TXZ000-242345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL AND DEEP S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 242145Z - 242345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DUE
TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE AND SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST MOVING NEWD WITH TIME.
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG/NEAR THE COAST OF S-CNTRL
INTO DEEP S TX ON THE SUBSIDENT/W SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IN A WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SELY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE MCD AREA VEER
WITH HEIGHT TO NWLY AROUND 8-9 KM AGL PER RECENT KCRP VWP. WHILE
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE ARE NOT OVERLY
STRONG...GENERALLY 40 KT OR LESS...SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF GENERALLY 30-40 KT OWING MAINLY TO THE STRONGLY VEERING
PROFILE WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. FINALLY...A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 130-180 M2/S2 PER KCRP/KBRO
VWPS...ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS RELATIVELY
MODEST.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 04/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   28459642 28799685 28879782 28269831 26949842 25929813
            25779736 25919698 26899717 27789684 28209643 28459642 

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