ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241831 
SPC MCD 241831 
MNZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SWRN MN...ERN NEB...WRN IA...FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 241831Z - 242030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...WITH ACCOMPANYING PRIMARY THREATS OF DMGG WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 20Z.

DISCUSSION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A WELL-DEFINED
MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR THE NEB/WY BORDER IS SPREADING E
TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSTM INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
ALONG A SFC DRYLINE ATTENDANT TO THE SYNOPTIC SFC LOW OVER CNTRL SD.
ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR/N OF I-80 IN
E-CNTRL NEB...AND THIS AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING NEWD.

A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY INITIAL DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES
THAT DEVELOP...BUT THE MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND SFC DRYLINE SUGGEST STORM MERGERS/INTERACTIONS WILL LEAD
TO AN EVENTUAL EVOLUTION TO A FEW CLUSTERS AND/OR QUASI-LINEAR MODE
BY THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING AN INCREASING DMGG WIND THREAT. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
/MID-UPPER 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS/ AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER
WIND PROFILES...BUT MAY STILL BE NON-ZERO WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   44299479 41809479 40839494 40019543 40049681 40029798
            40039849 41219845 42519823 44849877 45079723 44819554
            44299479 

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