ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 211440 
SPC MCD 211440 
TXZ000-211645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 211440Z - 211645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OVER SERN TX THIS MORNING. OVERALL
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR NACOGDOCHES IN SERN TX SWWD
TO NEAR GONZALES. THE LINE IS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 30-35 KT AND
WILL MERGE WITH THE NWRN PORTION OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NWRN GULF INTO SERN TX NEAR PASADENA. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY MERGERS WILL PROMOTE SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF THE MULTICELL LINE AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH SERN
TX.

..DIAL/GUYER.. 04/21/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29469570 30179495 31079417 30169385 29449475 29069527
            28949568 29089589 29469570 

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